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[gusl]

Paul Thagard shines some light on my personal ethical dilemma (I'm a bad utilitarian, since I maintain conflicting goals): Howard's Dilemma Paul Thagard - Inference to the Best Plan: A Coherence Theory of Decision

David Chart claims to explain the common error of the Feminist Bank Teller, where after an introduction to Linda as an "educated woman involved in anti-nuclear activism", people think she is more likely to be "a feminist bank teller" than "a bank teller"
David Chart - Inference to the Best Explanation, Bayesianism, and Feminist Bank Tellers

Comments

[trufflesniffer.livejournal.com]

I've seen that sort of problem.

It seems to arise when there are two classes, A & B, each with a common subclass X, but one class is much bigger than the other.
ie A>>B - people forget this fact

p(X) given B > p(X) given A - people understand this fact

But from this people wrongly infer that Xs are more likely to be B than A.


Gerd Gigerinzer (probably wrong spelling) seems to write about this a lot.