carbon-dating individual human cells

[gusl]

thread at tdj's about carbon-dating individual human cells (it's a very clever idea):

In discussing the required experimental precision / error, I proposed:

Here's a causation network:

A: atmospheric levels of C14 at time of cell's birth
B: initial amount of C14 in cell's DNA (i.e. at birth)
C: time passed since cell's birth
D: amount of C14 in the cell's DNA
E: "measured" amount of C14 in the cell's DNA (this is actually an estimation based on a measurement of radiation emitted by the cell)

A
 \ 
  B   C
   \ /
    D
    |
    E

In order to infer C, we need to know B and D (this inference step is pretty much dead-on if you have enough C14 atoms (by the law of large numbers)). We estimate D as E (noisy, experimental measurement), and B from A (also noisy, say due to non-uniform C14 levels + random variation in the cell birth process (?); one estimation for each point in history, although this "estimation" may be analytic, not statistical).

How many carbons atoms are there in DNA?
...discussion continues...

I really love making models like this.

I'm sure I've linked to CMU's Tetrad Project / Causality Lab before. But it never hurts to give them another plug.