Things I've been meaning to write:

Goedel, Escher, Bach really is excellent. It's a pretty long book, and the logic is not trivial even for me (I just received my Master's in Logic). He talks about Henkin algebras, the Feferman hierarchy, etc... all the while trying to stay close to his goal of making metaphors with cognition and consciousness.

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I want to write a methodology book titled "A Bayesian's Guide to Guesstimation". The inspiration was when, yesterday, I tried to combine several pieces of information in order to estimate the number of people were on this huge party complex near Ostbahnhof last night. I had:
* seen crowds of young people walking towards
* I roughly knew the size of the complex
* I roughly know Munich's population, and I had heard of this place twice from "random" strangers.

I could have stood and counted the people coming out of the station... and, using common sense priors about what time people tend go out, etc., I could have made a better guesstimate.

How can we combine common sense knowledge, intuitions, etc., before we have a formal model of the relationship between all the different pieces of information that one has? This is probably very relevant to the study of expert decision-making, i.e. "intelligence analysis".

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some notes on double-counting proofs:
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