sports betting markets

[gusl]

I have been thinking about using technical analysis for sports betting markets. Even though bookies have a margin of at least 7%, I believe there is enough irrationality and lack of analysis for an intelligent investor to make a profit. Perhaps I should start a "betting funds" investment company.

from http://www.esbc.fi/uk:

Betting Advice

Basics of betting theory

It is actually possible to win money at sports betting . The task itself is not easy and it will take a lot of time and patience. In fact only a small minority of people involved in sports betting will be able to show a profit year in and year out. Sports betting seems easy at a quick glance-making the right guess in a few sporting events can easily be mistaken for real analytic judgement. In reality, betting is a lot harder than it seems. Everybody who has tried sports betting knows this is a fact. Still some players are able to win constantly, increasing their investments gradually to ten times the initial stakes, eventually increasing to a hundred times.

It is no coincidence that some players actually win money at sports betting. Winning players are able to think the right way. It is important to understand that every bet made - even the ones with a negative outcome - is profitable in the long run. The main reason why these players win is the different way in which they think and the way they use available information.

The decisions of the winning players are based on the laws of betting theory and calculations of the available odds.

Trade with the odds

Like every area where money is being transferred from one owner to another sports betting is no different. It is essential to understand this. There are two sides in this trading situation: the bookie and the player. The Bookie being the seller and player being the buyer. In every trading situation the seller has an advantage. If the buyer wants to win in this trading situation, the advantage has to change over to the buyer. This can actually be achieved! The method used in sports betting as a product are the odds provided by the bookie. The attractive element of the the product itself is that nobody knows exactly what the real expectations and the correct estimations of the outcome are (i.e. the event). The bottom line is that the players who are able make good analytical calculations about the odds will win and the people who make hasty decisions, for example based on feelings will ultimately always lose.

Return percentage

The return percentage is a percentual part of the gross wins comparable to the sum the player has invested. As an example a player has made annual bets worth £10,000 and has gathered £14,000 in return from the bets he has won. Therefore the return percentage is 140.

The issues surrounding the possible outcome

How important is the state of the weather during the match? How should we react if Alan Shearer is injured? How important is the home advantage? Before the person calculating the odds can make decisions he has to figure out what aspects are relevant to the outcome. What information is relevant to the outcome and what's not? A good example is an injury. The injury to a player is hard to estimate and therefore it is also hard to estimate the potential impact. Likewise news about injuries to key players are often seen as too important, i.e. the potential impact is over-estimated. Similarly with the weather - it is impossible to estimate how big of an issue it will turn out to be during the event itself. Using mathematical analysis in the predictions is possible mainly in team sports where statisticial information is relatively easy to gather from various databases, i.e. newspapers-internet-teletext etc.

No Right Way

There are various ways to calculate odds. There is no one correct way to do so. If there was such a method there would be no underrated odds or mistakes as such. This is why sports betting can be profitable. People who offer odds make human errors and this will continue. It is also worth noting that sometimes the bookies are forced to alter their odds because otherwise the bets would all be directed to the one outcome or team.