gusl: (Default)
2011-09-19 11:28 pm

outsourcing intellectual work in science; semantic proofs

Computer gamers solve problem in AIDS research that puzzled scientists for years

Yay for gamification! This is very exciting!

Where else could we outsource intellectual labor to computer gamers? What other bits of science can be formalized and modularized away so as to not require the context that only comes with years of experience? Is this the same set of problems where you might use AI search algorithms?

For anyone interested in the logical structure of scientific theories and inter-theory relations, I recommend Theo Kuipers's "Structures in Science".

---

Tangentially, I've been working on a homework problem: if X and Y are independent geometric random variables, show that min(X,Y) is geometric. It is easy to write a semantic proof of this statement: just interpret X as "first time period in which a man arrives" and Y as "first time period in which a woman arrives", then min(X,Y) is "the first time period in which a person arrives". X and Y can be thought of as arising from memoryless arrival processes; and since they are independent, min(X,Y) arises from the combination of the two processes, which is clearly also memoryless.

Despite what some might say, this argument is 100% rigorous; though it is probably a distraction from the intent of the exercise, which is to play with equations... which is understandable, since that object-level axiomatic system is more well-known by mathematical bureaucrats who can rubber-stamp proofs as "valid".

To use a term from diagrammatic reasoning, semantic proofs give us a "free ride".
gusl: (Default)
2009-01-10 10:03 am

multi-level probability elicitation

Eliciting probabilities from people is tricky, even when said people are mathematically-educated experts in their field.

You ask them a series of questions regarding the probability of events, marginally or conditionally on some other events.

At first pass, the probabilities they give will typically be incoherent.

Of course, after you point out this incoherency, the expert will try to refine their estimates so as to avoid it... until you show them another incoherency, and so forth.

I can imagine making software that automatically searches for such incoherencies. I would call it "Dutch bookie".

Does this refinement process cause the expert to gradually give us better information about the domain? I like to think so, but this claim should be empirically testable.

This may be relevant: PAPATHOMAS Michail - Correlated Binary Variables and Multi-level Probability Assessments
gusl: (Default)
2005-11-07 04:52 pm

self-deception about politics; rational irrationality; social epistemology system

Highly recommended: Michael Huemer - Why People Are Irrational about Politics (even if I disagree with his moral objectivism at first sight)
My highlights:
Read more... )

---

I have an idea for a system for collaborative knowledge construction by skeptics, meant to avoid bias.
Read more... )

---

Here's a scarier link about techniques of persuasion, manipulation, hypnosis, etc. He characterizes the US Marines and revivalist churches as "brainwashing cults". Persuasion and Brainwashing Techniques Being Used On The Public Today

---

finally, via Google Ads:
The Theseus Learning System. Maybe I can make some money this way: selling software for critical-thinking education / idea refinement / writing. But my real interest is to create systems to enlighten real debates.

Let me be almost original and invent the phrase "epistemic hygiene".